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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward script. It frequently acts as a kind of apology. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the largest improvement is handed the award. However, it creates an annual debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or merely the greatest shock.

However the latest competition is fundamentally different. The list of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference champions falling away and recent also-rans rising collectively. During an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a wild and thrilling year, he's up against several other elite coaches.

Below is how the ideal ballot should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been given the chance to display his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to create magic out of broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a normal season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current is not a typical season!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which was not a certainty following his early public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff mix of youth and experience, Coen hired newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed since that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still